A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
